A complex systems methodology to transition management

Description :

Technology assessment traditionally focuses on comparing the desirability of alternativetechnological options. In such a perspective the transition path to be followed in thefuture is dictated by the alternative that is preferred at present. This approach totechnological transitions faces two problems. First, the future performance of alternativetechnological systems is uncertain. Due to the path dependent and irreversible nature oftechnological development (David 1985; Arthur 1989; Cowan 1990), initial transitionsteps along a particular path may cut off alternative paths, which may turn out to be moredesirable at a future moment in time. This means that if new information becomesavailable that favours an alternative technological system, it will be difficult to re-orientthe transition path into a new direction. Second, societal preferences may change during atransition process (Pinch and Bijker 1984). Such a change may induce a reversal of thetransition process wasting time and resources. For these reasons, we argue that initialtransition steps should be flexible, where we define flexibility as robustness regardingchanging evidence and changing preferences.